Triangulation : Statistically Approved Reversals

2023년 1월 24일

A lot of calculation, but a simple and effective result displayed on the chart.

It automatically identifies a very favorable period for a price reversal, by analyzing the daily and intraday price action statistics from the maximum of the most recent bars from the historical data. No repainting. Alerts can be set.

The statistical study is done in real time for each instrument. The probabilities therefore vary over time and adapt to the latest information collected by the indicator.

The time range of the data study can be changed by simply changing the UT :
- 30m = 3.5 last months feed statistics
- 15m = 52 last days feed statistics
- 5m = 17 last days feed statistics (recommanded)


HOW TO USE

This indicator informs when we are in a time period strongly favorable to reversal.

==> Crossing probabilities of different kinds, in price and in time => Triangulation of top and bottom !


HOW It WORK :

fractal statistics on high and low formation.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/86TspOh7/
hour's probabilities of making the high/low of the day are crossed with day's probabilities of making the high/low of the week.
First for the day, we study:
- value of the probability compared to the average probabilities
- value of the coefficient between the high probability and the low probability
which we then refine for the hour, with the same calculation.

Result: bright color for a day + hour with high probability, weak color if the probability is low but remains the only possible bias. Between these two possibilities, intermediate colors are possible - just like looking for shorts if the day is bullish, if it is a high probability hour!
This color is displayed in the background, only if we are forming the high of the day for tops, and the low of the day for bottoms - detected with a stochastic.
All probabilities are studied in real time for the current asset.

We will call this signal "killstats", for "killzones statistics"

fractal statistics on the probability of closure under specific predefined levels according to 36 cycles.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/A0mI0JH9/
the probabilities of several cycles are studied, for example:
NY session versus London and Asian sessions, London session compared to its opening, NY session compared to its opening, "algorithmic cycles" ( 1h30), Opening of NY compared to its intersection with London..

Each cycle producing a probability of closing with respect to the opening price of each period. The periods are : (Etc/UTC)
15-18h / 15-16h / 9-13h / 14-17h / 18-22h / 10-12h / 9-10h30 / 10h30-12h / 12-13h30 / 13h30-15h / 15h-16h30 / 16h30-18h

The cycles can be superimposed, which allows to support or attenuate a signal for the key periods of the day: 9am-12pm, and 3pm-6pm. The period of the day covered by the study of cycles is 9h-22h.

Result : ==> a straight line with a half bell. Colors = almost transparent for 53% probability (low), and very intense for a high probability (75%). The line displayed corresponds to the opening price, which we are supposed to close within the time limit - before the end of the period, where the line stops.

If the price goes in the opposite direction to the one predicted by the statistics, then a background connects the price to the close level to be respected.
if direction and close is respected, nothing is displayed : there is no opportunity, no divergence between statistics and actual price moves.

By unchecking the "light mode", you can see each close level displayed on the chart, with the corresponding probability and the number of times the cycle was detected. The color varies from intense for a high probability (75%), to light for a low probability (53%)

We will call this signal "cyclic anomalies"

By default, as shown in the indicator presentation image, the "intersection only" option is checked: only the intersection between 1) killstats and 2) cyclic anomalies is displayed. (filter +-30% of killstats signals)


MORE INFORMATIONS

/!\ : during a backtest, it is necessary to refresh the studied data to benefit from the real time signals, and for that you have to use the replay mode. if "Backtesting informations?"is checked, labels are displayed on the graph to warn of the % distortion of the signals. I recommend using the replay mode every 250 candles, and every 1000 candles for premium accounts, to have real signals.

- Alerts can be set for killzone, or intersections ( As in presentation picture)
- The ideal use is in m5. It can trigger several times a day, sometimes in opposite directions, and sometimes not trigger for several days.
- Premium account have 20k candles data, and not 5k => signals may vary depending on your tradingview subscription.

2023년 6월 23일

릴리즈 노트

added "data feed" informations