$TLT/US10Y

5월 14일

Bonds look to have a relief rally look to them.
However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower
- This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS

- With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates

- However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields

HOT CPI - TLT 📉, TBT 📈

COOL CPI - TLT 📈, TBT 📉