XRPUSD correction done or more to go? Ripple retrace options

XRP went higher than expected in my previous plot (click).
But the basic "12345" impulse then "ABC" correction applies.
We currently in a "decision zone" between 2 different paths.

Top chart shows how our ABC "might" be completed already.
The wave being from .618 retracement to -.618 extension.
Break below the -.618 ($0.0297) makes this option Less likely.

Bottom shows a possible correction of higher (larger) order.
We may be in larger wave A, which should have 5 sub waves.
Break above wave 1 ($0.3083) makes this option less likely.

코멘트:

Looks like we are on the "Red" path

perhaps just completed wave A and bouncing for wave B?

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코멘트:

Maybe one more little dip yet, to finish the 12345 of A

It also possible that the 5 waves are done, like this

but all in all I am leaning towards the first plot above. The next couple hours should give us the necessary info .

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코멘트:

Wave A may well have ended now, after a small final push

Low on candle was .2860, the fib zone top boundary was .2852. Close enough? I am thinking yes. Break above .29 would make help confirm that wave B is starting.

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코멘트:

Wave C is clearly under way now

My guess for wave B was too high - I should have known that it would probably get as high as the wave (4) of A, thus painting a head-n-shoulders of a sort. Will do some measurements to try and estimate wave C's destination.

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코멘트:

Looking at how waves A and B turned out, I am thinking that the original target for wave (C) is till valid.

BUT a lower target has come into focus how (dotted arrow) around 26 cents. So in round figures, I am looking for 27c first, and if that does not bounce strong, then 26c. Any lower than 26c means XRP is up to its old tricks ie: move up will be completely retraced and then some :( But I will stay positive until the evidence says otherwise. Also, it is worth watching XLM that is currently well correlated to XRP.

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코멘트:

Hmm, it is ALSO possible that wave B is not done yet and could go to originally plotted zone like this

I thinkthis is UN-likely, but EW internal structure says it is possible. The EW rules are that a wave A should have 5 subwaves, wave B with 3 subs, and wave C with 5 subs again. At least in a simple ABC correction.

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코멘트:

Looks like the original plot is going to play out

27 cents will be the KEY first stand for Bulls. Considering wave 'b' only got to the 0.5 fib of wave 'a' , it is now more possible for wave 'c' to push down to the dotted arrow target, the -0.618 fib of wave 'a' around 26 cents. And sadly, that would be 'typical' for XRP, to retrace all/most of the bump :(

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코멘트:

27 cents is still the next target below that I am watching, BUT:

that little bounce slightly ahead of the 1.618 fib around .2750 was a good sign, as in fib is being followed, and there some buyers where expected.

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코멘트:

We just hit the 27 cent target

getting a little bit of a bounce, lets see if it holds. I am still thinking 26 cents

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코멘트:

27 cent zone is holding pretty well thus far,

maybe even a double bottom?