XRP (Ripple) Breakout or Breakdown?

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I first entered XRP at 5K sats a few months ago, and then entered a second position at 7500. Since then, we've almost perfectly followed the path I outlined for XRPBTC in my previous analysis:

Crypto: The Ultimate Test of Patience - Buying Opportunity Soon

This is a pretty simple chart. It is only short-term idea. We are resting on the support that has held since October. It's really possible to break either way at this point. This is a good time to set a stop loss, as we have some pretty low targets if we break down. Possible support areas are in green, and the first bullish target if we bounce is in red.

Potential setups:
BUY Support here in the low 9000 area.
STOP LOSS 8890, or whatever you think makes sense.
TARGET: 10000+

SHORT below 8900
TARGETS:
8500
7600
6800
6100 (at the bottom blue rising trend line). This would be a 30% decline in price from here.

This is not financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell. I'm just posting this because this is a very important moment for the market, and I'm curious to see how it plays out.

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Here's what a breakdown might look like:

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The lowest target, in my opinion, for a breakdown, would be at the green X.

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Still holding, so far. This is a very important level.

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We pretty much need to push up ASAP to avoid a breakdown.

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Not looking good now. We just got a strong rejection candle when we attempted to bounce, and now we seem to be sliding out of support. This candle needs to close above.

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This might be a good long opportunity with a relatively tight stop (maybe 100-200 sats below where we are now). Time to pick your sides.

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On the other hand, you can go short here, with a similarly tight stop. Let's see what happens!

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If this daily candle closes as a doji, we should be good to move up. I have a stop loss set in place to protect my capital. I'm now trying to execute my own strategies (something I was more afraid of doing before).

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Looks like the bulls have won this fight so far. We're still in a downtrend though. I'm cutting wicks here because this line has the most touches.

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Maybe if this support can continue to hold we'll have a chance...but otherwise, not looking good.

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Looks like bulls have held on again! The buying support for XRP is massive. The chances are increasing now for a bit breakout above the red resistance. The battle now favors the bulls.

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Since Bitcoin got rejected hard, it's not looking as promising again. This market is so erratic that if you're trading it, you really have to keep on your toes. This is why, although I'm fairly confident in my analysis, I don't like day trading crypto. It can be very stressful and frustrating. Better to just try to time market lows and accumulate if you think it'll increase in value in the future. However, this doesn't stop me from having fun analyzing the market : )

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Right up against resistance now!

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Barely hanging on by a thread here.

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The direction this breaks, by the way, will likely indicate the direction of the market in the mid-term.

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Looks like we got at least a temporary direction. AS LONG AS we stay above 9175 (the recently broken resistance) we should see a positive response from the rest of the market.

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Since we've bounced at support, it should indicate that the rest of the market wants to move up. That includes Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is really the weakest looking coin at the moment. I guess that's because all the money is flowing into alts. I'll say it again: I think some alts may try to challenge Bitcoin's market cap over the next year.

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XRP has yet again shown its independence from Bitcoin. Despite the selloff, we're at the same sat value as we were beforehand. This could indicate that the selloff is a bear trap. Or just that XRP has decoupled a bit. If Bitcoin continues downwards, we can't even assume that XRP would break its support. During the breakdown of 6K, XRP actually did quite well.

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Well, looks like the market has shown overall weakness, so we've broken down. I suggested that as long 9175 held, we would be good to move up. But it didn't. When Bitcoin failed to follow through with all the alts surging, it was a pretty strong sell signal. We've broken down now. I have a feeling we're about to see a big capitulation event, which could (briefly) take many coins far below expected support levels.

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If Bitcoin can bounce here though, chances are that this was yet another fakeout below (or above) this uptrend line. This is why I'm not really trading right now. As a market searches for bottom, there can be many fake moves. Going to step out for the day. Need to take a break. Whatever happens, be careful and remain calm.

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Even though price seems stable, we've broken down out of the uptrend and have been testing it as resistance. All is not lost though, for the bulls. We've continuously held the 8900 horizontal support. I originally had my stop loss at 8890, but we bounced at 8891 yesterday. Good thing I removed my stop loss...that was dangerously close. Same thing happened with me and NEO. One point away. It's almost as if they're reading my mind. Anyway, if XRP can some how maintain this area and get back above the uptrend line, it would be extremely bullish. This is what TRX did before its recent 300% move. The lack of a bounce in BItcoin and the low volume tells me that we may need to test some lower levels though. I wouldn't go long on XRP until it gets back into the uptrend.

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So, we've been consolidating in the same area for days...and sellers haven't stepped in despite breaking the uptrend. This seems to mean that going short is not a great idea yet. In fact, this looks like it could be accumulating for a push back up above the uptrend line. This sometimes happens with coins that are particularly bullish. There have been a lot of fake moves in alts recently, mostly to get people to sell on breakdowns that don't end up materializing. I'd be careful trading here.

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It’s taken a while, but we’ve finally slid down to the first support after breaking the uptrend. Let’s see if it holds. If we break 8500, the next level is around 7700.

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Looks like bulls held the 8200 support area and we’re making an attempt to reclaim the uptrend....but it’s still a bit further in the 9800 area. If we break out there, it will be a good sign that the market finally wants to reverse the trend.