MoRafi

XLF Short Round 2: Do You Believe in Second Chances?

AMEX:XLF   SPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial
Upset that you weren't set up for the first drop that occurred last week? Well lucky you the market loves to trap people and right now XLF is in a bull trap (in my opinion of course) which has brought it back close to its all time highs. Massively overbought on the weekly and we ended with a big volume red hammer candle on the weekly. On the daily we have moved almost 2 dollars in 2 days with volume completely dying out on 5/14. On the hourly and daily we are almost back to our highs at around 38 with much lower MACD, RSI and VOLUME. Expecting a last push up over 38 for a few minutes on 5/17 then the beginning of a drop that will last 3 weeks. The XLF has been one of the sectors keeping SPY up when QQQ was selling off. The Qs have finished most of their selling but SPY has rebounded back going back up almost 2.5% in 2 days (a pretty significant move for SPY). There are so many sectors that are in the same spot as XLF. Helping to keep SPY up while the Qs sold off. XLE (energy), XLV (healthcare), XLI (industrials), XLP(staples), ARE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT WITH THE EXACT SAME CHART ALMOST. SPY and all these ETFs showing bearish sighs leads me to believe we are still in for bearish activity for the next 2 to 3 weeks for the overall market. Out of all of these etfs, XLF offers the lowest options spreads between bid and ask.

PT: Price comes back to next high volume VPVR range which is around 35.5. Also the 4 hour 100 ema can possibly bounce the price in the following days.

OVERALL: EXPECTING A SELL OFF THEN WE CONTINUE BACK TO ALL TIME HIGHS

ENTRY: BELOW 37.5
PT: 37.5-35.5

STRIKE: 36.5
DATE: JUN 11
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