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Wyckoff Take IV: Finally, the Big Bearish Picture

업데이트됨

Yes, I definitely got my earlier Wyckoff charts wrong. My first mistake was not realizing the BC at 9480 actually defined the top of the entire Trading Range - which led to the second mistake of labeling the rise to 9200 as the UTAD, when really it was the ST, and the rise that followed the presumed SOW to 10K was the **actual** UTAD.

I was wrong in assuming the entire Wyckoff was invalid when we didn't dump back on May 4th -- it was still in progress, I was simply premature in announcing its completion. So here I am again, ready to be pelted with rocks for uttering the Wyckoff one more time.

But now, with the blessed gift of hindsight, the Wyckoff model really is rather blatant. We have a solid bulltrap UTAD up to the top of the channel range (even breaching a little), creating a great level for the pumpwhales to dump onto (as they did with much force, a vertical onslaught from 9600 on an otherwise sleepy weekend while CME futures were closed). That selloff took us into a solid SOW below the Trading Range -- but, despite multiple attempts for the fishes to continue downwards, every spike got bought up resulting in a ragged ugly reversal into a whiplash spike near the Halvening.

The ugly chop since then has been trapping leveraged fishes up and down, finally consolidating on almost *no* volume as the market wonders what is coming next, but also feeling bullishly hopeful the "Halving dump" has already happened, and we can go up to fill the CME gap to 10K again. This timid rally is going to fall short of those highs, likely between 9300-9400 at most (the top of the new bear correction channel).

I expect another forceful dump with volume to appear at the top of this reach, cutting it short and not leaving any time for consolidation, just straight back down again as the pumpwhales unload the last of their coins onto the final rally. In fact, the nature of the LPSY should warn us that any reach for 9300 zone might not make it that high at all. Even bears planning on fat 9400-9500 shorts will get caught chasing the dump train...

TP1 - $8020
TP2 - $7777
TP3 - $7555

노트

Bulls are just not showing up for this, no matter how many carefully painted candles they're given. At some point, some fish will take the bait of the downline breach, but I'm beginning to think there's not enough oomph to get us even past 9100. I would not expect a high shoulder to dive off here...

액티브 트레이드

Just touched the 0.236 fib, but expecting a diagonal push to grind up a little past this vertical move. Closing long that i had open since 8600. Don't need a perfect top, just want to take profits and figure out best short entry.

액티브 트레이드

We've kissed the top of my original pitchfork on this wave, which has been strong enough for to me consider this 9400 reach to actually be the top of wave 3. Have placed staggered shorts from 9300-9600, as a last-gasp bull trap is possible with this kind of pump energy. I've also reframed the pitchwork to show how a bulltrap reach to 9600-9700 could work tradingview.com/x/kSpQQhbD/.

Truth is in the volume. Until the whales dump with force, this mini-rally is not over just because it slows momentum.

액티브 트레이드

That red ceiling trendline in the above charts is what we're up against -- and there's a strong indication that we could be at the top of the second of "three-drives" pattern (see black arrows). Not longing here, only cautiously filling shorts with wide stops

액티브 트레이드

It does appear to have been Wave 3, we topped out and are now drawing a Wave 4. Shorted 9360, now the question is whether we really are at LPSY, and that's the "last high" (all other bounces fail) - or whether we have a Wave 5 reaching to 9700 before selloff arrives.

액티브 트레이드

pressure on low volume keeps grinding price up thru resistance, popping stops in the process. covered short quickly, until I can get a clearer sense of where this push will run out of steam. Also, I've reframed the correction pitchfork to be more accurate, this likely fits the action better. A repeat of the recent 10K topping out would look something like this

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

passing 9450 means we're back up out of the trading range, even past the initial BC rally -- and the whales keep spitting out multi-million buys to prop up this reach to silly levels (at least without correction). Wave counts are busted, no retraces anywhere, so I closed the short and am sitting on hands, waiting for a less-ludicrous path to appear.