$BTCUSD - Probable Paths ( Red Pill / Blue Pill )

2019년 2월 16일

This post contains both a bullish and bearish scenario.

My current opinion on the situation is that there are far too many longs, which leads me to believe that we are due for a move up followed by an increase in short interest and subsequently a rather violent dump. This is shown on the chart.

This is where the bull/bear battle will unfold - and where you'll need to watch PA and draw your own conclusions.

Bull Scenario:
Bulls win battleground test, creating a HL on HTF's and push up via an iHS pattern

Targets for this scenario would be 4200-4400

Bear Scenario:
Bears win the battleground test, sending us into our last hope support at 3200's. We will likely have a weak bounce followed by a stab at the lows. Whether or not we continue downwards is only to be determined if this area is reached, and volume will be key. If the bounce is weak we could continue down much much further as shown in this bear fractal ive found showing recent hidden bear divergences on the daily



Targets for this scenario would be 3000 - and if it continues lower, 1800-2000.

Im currently long (

), waiting for the spike - will definitely flip short in the red area, with large asks in the red box for shit-wicks. Once we reach the battleground - i will update everyone on what i see.

2019년 2월 18일

노트

Was expecting a bit higher, but this may be all we get. Out of longs - shorts only for the moment

2019년 2월 18일

노트

Reached target - did not push into the red zone, but opening a short here.