I think it is highly unlikely the yearly low is in. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see the 3-4k range has served as a key has served first as support, then an accumulation range and has been tested for the third time.
From my observation, double/triple bottom patterns are not high probability setups in Bitcoin (or any market for that matter).
Key arguments:
First test: S/R flip. Down move to 3k effectively led us to ATH.
Second test: 4 month accumulation range, led us to 14k (2019 high)
Third test: Q1 2020 collapse as result of global fears.
I think the most significant point here is that the move from early 2019 to 14k failed to reach ATH before retracing the entire move: it seems that interest has been exhausted. I would be surprised if we didn't see 1.5-2k levels in the next 12-24 months. That being said, it would not be the end for bitcoin entirely, but it would see lots of the remaining retail traders/speculators leave the market. If we do recover to over 10k in the next 12 months that would present a very bullish structure, but for now it is sensible to hedge expecting lower prices coming.
From my observation, double/triple bottom patterns are not high probability setups in Bitcoin (or any market for that matter).
Key arguments:
First test: S/R flip. Down move to 3k effectively led us to ATH.
Second test: 4 month accumulation range, led us to 14k (2019 high)
Third test: Q1 2020 collapse as result of global fears.
I think the most significant point here is that the move from early 2019 to 14k failed to reach ATH before retracing the entire move: it seems that interest has been exhausted. I would be surprised if we didn't see 1.5-2k levels in the next 12-24 months. That being said, it would not be the end for bitcoin entirely, but it would see lots of the remaining retail traders/speculators leave the market. If we do recover to over 10k in the next 12 months that would present a very bullish structure, but for now it is sensible to hedge expecting lower prices coming.