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Gold Analysis 12/06/24

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Analyzing the provided gold (XAU/USD) chart on a 4-hour timeframe, here are the potential scenarios based on the CPI data release:

1. *Positive CPI (Higher than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Likely:* If CPI data is positive (indicating higher inflation), the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates to combat inflation. This scenario can lead to a strengthening US dollar and typically puts downward pressure on gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes below the current support level of approximately 2,290.390, we can expect a downward movement towards the next support levels of 2,278 to 2,265, as marked on the chart.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart shows clean traffic below this level, suggesting potential for a more significant drop if this support breaks.

2. *Negative CPI (Lower than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Unlikely or Rate Hold:* If CPI data is negative (indicating lower inflation), the Federal Reserve might hold off on raising rates or even consider rate cuts. This scenario can weaken the US dollar and generally supports higher gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes above the resistance level of approximately 2,318.071, we can expect an upward movement towards the next resistance levels of 2,325 to 2,337.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart indicates clean traffic above this level, suggesting potential for further gains if this resistance is broken.

*Scenarios Summarized:*
- *If CPI is positive (high inflation):* Gold price could drop below 2,290.390, targeting 2,278 to 2,265.
- *If CPI is negative (low inflation):* Gold price could rise above 2,318.071, targeting 2,325 to 2,337.

In General im Bearish with Gold , i think gold might Drop way more But Not for long i'll explain why after posting i'll share some News that may help , i dont take trades based on News unless its confirmed
those news might be wrong or right

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🟥 Some reports, citing participants in the gold industry, stated that China (the largest official buyer of gold in the sector) is expected to resume bullion purchases as soon as prices fall from the record high levels they recorded last May, especially with the continued attractiveness of the metal for purchase.

• In this context, the CEO of the World Gold Council, David Tait, said on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Precious Metals Conference in Singapore that China’s data showed that it has stopped buying gold and that China is just waiting and watching, and if prices stabilize at the level of $2,200 an ounce, it will... China resumes its activity in the gold market again.

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🔴 Here are the most notable developments:

• The rate of change in the number of unemployment applications in Britain was released and it rose from 8,400 to 50,400 applications for aid.

• This had a negative impact on the pound sterling against other currencies, and may put more pressure on it later.

• While the US dollar is still in relatively good shape, supported by the rise in government jobs last Friday.

• The euro is still negatively affected after the defeat of Macron’s party in the elections and his call for early elections.

• Currently, all eyes are focused mainly on tomorrow, Wednesday, when inflation data and the US interest rate decision will be released.

👈 Today, there are no strong data, and occasional movement and calm are expected in the markets, but it is the calm before the storm tomorrow, Wednesday.

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🌎 UBS Bank (one of the most important investment banks in the world) declares:

👈 Do not believe China, the fall of gold is an opportunity to buy only, not to sell

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Entered in Buys off the rip like we planned in the chart and hit 300+ pips ,
FOMC is comming
interest rate comming lock it in

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🔴 There is a state of dissatisfaction from the US Federal Reserve with the price of gold.. 🇺🇸🏛

• Therefore, Powell may hint about gold today and show a state of dissatisfaction with its price and consider it illogical, and this will be like a storm for gold.

✅ In 2011, the head of the Federal Reserve at the time did it when gold rose to 1930 and said that the price of gold was exaggerated and illogical...and then there was a free fall of about $100.

👈 This matter may or may not happen today, but it is important to shed light on it.

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📑 Important - Federal Interest Rate Rule.. 🇺🇸

• If interest rates are raised, it will be positive for the dollar (rise) and negative for gold, stocks, and oil (fall).

• If interest rates are reduced or fixed, it will be negative for the dollar (fall) and positive for gold, stocks, and oil (rise).

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🔴 One hour and 45 minutes from now on the news of the US Federal Interest Rate.. 🇺🇸

• Strong expectations indicate stabilization of interest rates, and major fluctuations that the US stock market may witness at the time of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech tonight.. 🇺🇸🔥

• Be careful, violent fluctuations are expected to occur on the US dollar pairs, indices, and gold. Please fully commit to capital management.. ⚠️

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FED RATE DESCISION GUYS LOCK IT IN

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• News of the interest rate decision issued by the US Federal Reserve after (5) minutes.. 🔥🇺🇸

• Federal Open Market Committee report in (2) minutes.. 🔥🇺🇸

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Here are the points Jerome mentioned :
🔴 Jerome Powell:

• We are still committed to bringing inflation back to about 2%.
🔴 Jerome Powell:

• The general inflation rate is still high, and inflation must be reduced before thinking about reducing interest.

🔴 Jerome Powell:

• Inflation rates are much higher than the current target of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Committee.

• The recent economic data was strong and expresses the strength of the economy.

🔴 Urgent | Jerome Powell:

• We expect interest rates to fall to 4.1% over the next year.

• The consumer price index rose higher than expected this year.

🔴 Jerome Powell:

• It is true that inflation rates have declined, but they are still very high.

🔴 Jerome Powell:

• The American economy is still growing at a solid pace, and we do not rule out keeping interest rates high for a longer period if necessary.

• We will not reduce interest rates unless we are sure that inflation will return to our target of 2%.

• The labor market is still strong and affects inflation rates and may contribute to raising inflation rates again.

🟥 Jerome Powell:

• Members of the US Federal Reserve are adamant that it would not be appropriate to cut rates, until they have confidence in achieving the inflation target.

🔴 Jerome Powell:

• As long as the US economy remains strong and as long as inflation is above 2%, the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for a long time.
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced interest rate hike expectations and the number of times by a third this year
And raised it by 25% next year
It also raised its expectations for the inflation rate by the end of the year from its previous expectations
Meaning, in a simplified way, that the committee reduced the pace of interest cuts this year
🟥 Jerome Powell:

• Currently, it is not possible to know whether high interest rates will return to their historically low levels before the Corona epidemic or not.

• The US Federal Reserve is prepared to keep interest rates high for a long period, as long as this is necessary to achieve the inflation target.

• Inflationary pressures have calmed significantly, but inflation is still high and above its target.

💥 Jerome Powell:

• We do not have a specific date for reducing interest rates, and when we are confident that inflation returns to its target, we will take a decision to reduce interest rates.

👈 In short:

• The US Federal Reserve frustrated the optimism of those waiting for an imminent rate cut.

🔴 It's over.

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Now price action , Asian session might be interesting i might send a potential sell or buys in Gold or GJ Here guys

액티브 트레이드

Buys Gold :
Entry 1 : 2317
SL : 2305
TP 1 : 2325.24
TP 2 : 2331.578

액티브 트레이드

40+ pips running bois Secure AND BE and let the Candles print go sleep " SET & Forget now "

액티브 트레이드

BE HIT , see you in london session guys

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🌟 The two most important points for every investor:

1️⃣- In times of crisis, do not be afraid and sell at a loss.
2️⃣- Crises are a time to buy, not a time to sell.