XAUUSD: Waiting for US economic data to determine the trend

2월 2일

The Federal Reserve ended its first meeting of 2024 with a decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

The FOMC also abandoned its tightening stance but said it would not consider cutting borrowing costs. Chairman Powell said that officials are not confident enough in the data to pivot at the next meeting.

Although the possibility of a rate cut in March has decreased, the situation could change if upcoming information proves to be surprising. Overall, a weaker economy could cause policymakers to reconsider their stance; After all, reliance on data is the guiding principle of central banking.

Given the current situation, the US January jobs report will be of great importance. Wall Street forecasts show U.S. employers adding 180,000 jobs last month, but a lower actual figure would not be surprising after a decline in ADP and unemployment claims increase.

If the NFP report misses estimates, the March rate cut could be reconsidered. In this case, US government bond yields and the USD could fall sharply, providing support for gold in the short term.

On the other hand, if NFP figures exceed estimates, the market will continue to underprice a rate cut. In this scenario, government bond yields and the greenback could increase sharply, putting pressure on precious metals. In this context, bullion may face many difficulties in February.

On Thursday, gold broke through the $2,050 barrier and approached a key ceiling at $2,065. In case the precious metal breaks above this level, the price could rise to $2,085, then $2,150.

Conversely, if XAU/USD reverses to the downside, traders will need to watch $2,050. If this area is crossed, the price could drop to the 50-day SMA, after which a retest of $2,005 could be possible. Below this floor, the price target will move to 1,990.