XAUUSD : Real yields continue to cast shadow over gold

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The yellow metal rebounded mid-August from quite strong support on the 200-day moving average and the June low of 1890. This was associated with a brief reprieve lower in US real yields, also as data released in the second half of August failed to match up with overly optimistic expectations (the US Economic Surprise Index hit a two-year high at the end of July before cooling off).

With the US Federal Reserve unwilling to commit it is done with hiking rates, there is very little incentive for yields to fall meaningfully amid a resilient economy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Boston Fed President Susan Collins's comments reiterated the data dependency with regard to the path of monetary policy. The path of least resistance for yields remains sideways to up.

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➡️Michael Burry has now lost approximately -42% of his bet ($1.6 billion) against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

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On Thursday, the huge American investment bank Wells Fargo published a memorandum that dealt with its experts’ expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s movements during the next year. The memorandum explained the bank’s expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 225 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings starting in March of next year.

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The fact that there are many different opinions is also shown in the survey on short-term gold price trends. Specifically, in a Kitco News survey on gold price forecasts next week, among 13 Wall Street analysts, 4 people, equivalent to 31%, expected gold prices to increase but 5 people, equivalent to 38%, predicted that gold prices would increase. Precious metals report goes down; The remaining 4 people think that gold is moving sideways.

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🕯 SELL GOLD | 1924 - 1926

🔴 SL: 1930

🟢 TP1: 1920
🟢 TP2: 1915

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There was a lot of volatility in the market today because tomorrow we have US Core Consumer Price Index, this instability lasts for several days so please be careful trade and manage your risks carefully

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🟢The European Central Bank raised its average inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.3% and through 2024 to 2.3%, while lowering it for 2025 to 1.2%.