XAU/USD. IntraWeek. Short. R:R 5:1 !!!

2021년 11월 9일

Hello traders, here we come to a pivotal point in the chart for gold. Based on previous price action we see that gold has already reacted to this price zone 3 previous times, each time coming into the zone before price retraced as large sell orders were added. We should expect this to happen again as this is where smart money has placed shorts, coupling this with the 4 hour RSI showing overbought levels above 70 we would expect gold to blow off some steam and more sellers to take over, this is also a supply zone where I would expect more institutions to begin selling and adding more shorts. This makes for a very high risk reward trade where you can expect very minimal negative equity so would be able to use a better lot size. At the time of posting this gold has still not reached my entry price as I am specifically waiting for price to wick into the blue zone marked. At this point institutions should begin profit taking and unwinding their buys from 1760/80 whilst adding more sells at this price point. In the contrarian bullish view we would see this bias become invalidated as soon as price reaches above 1840 although I simply don't see institutions letting it reach there. Open interest on gold futures also has been increasing whereby I expect these to be more sells being added for the longer term.
Reasoning - because the supply level at 1830/36 is so high I remain bearish despite their being a lot of liquidity above this area I don't see it being fully collected as the market sentiment is bearish, we just need to wait for gold to finally touch the grey line at which point it should turn bearish.
Note we could be stuck in this ascending wedge pattern till tomorrow when CPI data is announced at which point I will update this idea.