Gold prices fell below a key support level on Thursday, indicating that the upward pressure on prices has diminished. This is due to the central bank's hawkish comments and improved risk sentiment, reducing the appeal of the safe-haven metal. XAU/USD dropped below $1,930, including its lowest level in late May, which was highlighted as a risk in the Thursday update.
In short, the steepening of the yield curve will mark the turning point for the Gold market because that precedes the start of rate cuts. The yield curve began to steepen in the spring with the multiple bank failures, but the Fed was able to paper over that, and the economy has avoided recession for now.
How quickly the yield curve steepens depends on the health of the economy. The closer we are to a recession, and the faster it hits means, the closer the yield curve is to steepening and Gold starting its breakout move.