XAUUSD - Steadies as US Dollar under pressure ahead of CPI

업데이트됨

Gold prices started the new week with an increase on Friday as the US dollar weakened. Despite high bond yields, the US dollar continued to weaken, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.10%, well above the low of 3.25% seen in April.

Sensitive to policy changes, the 2-year bond yield reached over 5.10% last Thursday, the highest in 16 years, before dropping to 4.75% on Friday. It is now back above 4.90%. The bumpy ride suggests that the data points along the way and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed a more hawkish stance than previously perceived by the market.

The interest rate market is currently considering the possibility of a 25 basis point hike by the Fed on July 26, with a probability of over 80%.

노트

🐾 BUY GOLD zone 1916 - 1913

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1910

💲 Take Profit 1: 1920
💲 Take Profit 2: 1925
💲 Take Profit 3: 1930

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

⭐️Plan to BUY Successfully Take Profit 1 + 70pips 💲💲💲

노트

The US CPI will be closely monitored on Wednesday to see if the Fed's tightening measures have had the desired impact on inflation. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are expecting a 3.1% annual CPI by the end of June, compared to the previous 4.0%.

Higher real interest rates are being driven by nominal interest rate increases, as inflation expectations remain steady. This can be seen in the chart below.

For gold traders, keeping an eye on US interest rates may provide clues about potential market trends.

노트

The technical outlook for gold bears in August is favorable in the short term. The price has been on a nine-week downtrend on the daily chart. The next target for the bullish side is to close above the strong resistance level of $1,950. The next short-term target for bears is to push the futures contract price below the solid technical support level of $1,846, the lowest in February. The first resistance level is seen at today's highest level of $1,933, followed by last week's high of $1,942. The first support level is seen at today's lowest level of $1,918, followed by last week's low of $1,908.

노트

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1934 - 1937 (scalping)

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1940

💲 Take Profit 1: 1930
💲 Take Profit 2: 1927
💲 Take Profit 3: 1924

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

⭐️Plan to SELL Successfully Take Profit 1 + 80pips 💲💲💲

노트

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1950 - 1947

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1955

💲 Take Profit 1: 1935
💲 Take Profit 2: 1930
💲 Take Profit 3: 1925

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Some economists and market analysts have said this is a surprising deflationary signal as the supply of used cars remains; however, the supply of new vehicles for sale is improving as demand weakens.

All eyes are now on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index. According to consensus estimates, economists are looking for annual consumer prices to rise 3.1%, down from 4% reported in May.

The weak inflation data is not having an immediate impact on interest rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets continue to brace for a 25-basis point hike from the Federal Reserve later this month.

노트

From a technical standpoint, gold seems ready for a breakthrough with a bullish flag pattern and many indications of price action. We have seen higher highs and higher lows since dropping below the psychological level of $1,900 on June 29th.

My only concern about a price breakthrough at this stage is the important consolidation area around $1,950 while the 50-day MA is slightly higher at $1,959. A higher breakout may bring resistance around $1,980.

노트

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1967 - 1965

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1972

💲 Take Profit 1: 1955
💲 Take Profit 2: 1950
💲 Take Profit 3: 1945