Silver: Mass Pessimism and Potential Breakout Point to Upside

Based on COT data, this is THE most pessimistic speculators have been on silver in the last decade. Even more so than during major multi-year crash prior to 2016. Speculators are amassing short positions, which they have not done in more than a decade, and the price is no longer dropping. To me, that is a contrarian bullish sign.

COT positions are not a timing indicator.
The price could hover here or even drop a bit more before rallying.
Typically, when things get this pessimistic, once a rally starts it typically lasts for at least a few weeks.

While the price could be entering a major up wave if it breaks out of the current patterns, I will deal with that as it unfolds.
Right now I am primarily concerned with the evidence pointing to a short-term pop with the next weeks.

For a longer-term major upwave to unfold I would also want to see SIL and GDX start to rally aggressively, as well as gold. If GDX and SIL (the miners) don't join the party, then the rally is likely to be short lived.

I am long.