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Crude Oil Falls to $70.30 as Market Awaits Possible Reversal

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Oil prices have extended their losses for the second consecutive day, with crude trading around $70.30 per barrel on Wednesday. The decline in oil prices has been largely driven by the potential resolution of a political dispute in Libya, which has temporarily halted exports, along with growing concerns over a slowdown in global demand growth.

Adding to the negative market sentiment, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that US manufacturing continues to struggle. Although there was a slight improvement in August, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 47.2 from 46.8 in July, it still fell short of market expectations of 47.5. This marks the 21st contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months, underscoring the persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector.

From a technical standpoint, oil has entered a strong demand area, where seasonality data suggests a potential increase in volume, hinting at the possibility of a reversal. Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily short on oil, further supporting the potential for a rebound. However, it's important to note that commercial traders, often seen as the "smart money," continue to hold lower positions, adding a layer of uncertainty to the reversal outlook.

Moreover, oil prices are facing additional pressure due to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) planning to increase production in the upcoming quarter. This move could weigh on prices, making a sustained recovery less certain.

While there are signs of a possible reversal in oil prices, the data remains inconclusive, and traders should exercise caution as market dynamics evolve.

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