Crude oil-about to turn?

8월 1일

Yesterday saw a sharp turnaround in oil after prices appeared to find a floor on Tuesday. This followed a near-relentless sell-off which began at the beginning of July. But Wednesday brought a last-minute stick save. This saw Brent and WTI bounce sharply. Front-month WTI was trading above $78 earlier this morning, having hit a multi-week low of $73.35 on Tuesday. The trigger may well have been the escalation in hostilities across the Middle East where Israel appears to have targeted and killed two senior enemy figures, one from Hamas and another from Hezbollah. Crude was already looking quite oversold as it closed in on its multi-month low hit back in early June. Could yesterday’s recovery be the start of a more prolonged rally? It will certainly have caused many shorts to cover. But whether the move is enough to trigger a 180 degree shift in sentiment remains to be seen. In other news, OPEC+ meets today and is forecast to continue with its current programme of production cuts. Tomorrow sees the release of quarterly results from Chevron and Exxon Mobil. These follow on from Shell’s profit beat announced this morning, and BP’s positive results earlier this week.