숏

Making a Prediction for the End of August (WABI/BTC) - 200 sats

업데이트됨

I tend to shy away from making outright predictions, because I think TA should be used to understand risk, as well as cognitive bias. However, it's fun when you're right, and I was tasked with making a prediction as part of a friendly TradingView competition. Needless to say, this will be an "educated" guess, but it's really hard to know anything at all with coins like this, since they can pump out of the blue due to low volume. I do not own this token, nor do I have plans to purchase it, so this is purely for fun.

To make this "educated" guess, I will use a couple of tools I have available to me. Firstly, it's clear WABI is in a long term downtrend against Bitcoin. This can be seen on the lefthand chart. It's also clear that Bitcoin dominance is in a long term downtrend. This means that WABI has failed to keep up with the rest of the altcoin market and has largely underperformed. WABI/USD has also not begun a bullish trend, and remains well over 95% down from its January 2018 price.

Unless it experiences a pump and dump, it seems unlikely to reach those prices again. Knowing that "dead" coins can come back to life suddenly makes it difficult to make a prediction. What also makes this difficult is that Bitcoin dominance seems to be at a decision zone. It can head towards 50%+, or right back down to sub-40% this month. Or both can happen. This can be much like Dominance in November 2017, or even June/July 2017.

The point here is to make a prediction for the END of August, so this means the monthly close. I think there's a decent chance Bitcoin continues up from here. In this case, I do still think it can touch the 51% dominance level before the end of this month. Even if Bitcoin drops, I think it's likely dominance will increase. In either case, many alts would drop on their ratios, especially coins like WABI.

Currently, Wabi has broken a downtrend. As you can see, based on prior breakouts, this doesn't mean anything. The community is dead, and volume is negligible. I think WABI is likely to decline towards 200 sats, even if it experiences a momentary pump. Based on its volume, trend, and sentiment, I think a SUSTAINED pump is unlikely. However, my prediction could easily be invalidated if Dominance drops from here. This would make pumps in coins like WABI more likely, and it can instead target 600+ sats. Jeez, and the WABI/BNB chart looks even more dreadful. To be fair, very few coins have outperformed BNB.

Now watch it hit 2000 sats just to mess with me :)

This is certainly not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, fun, and entertainment only. Read my status and my signature for information about my recent partnership with Mudrex. Pretty interesting platform.

-Victor Cobra

노트

I apologize - I accidentally repeated the WABI/USD chart when I meant to post Bitcoin dominance:

노트

Welp, looks like this thing may at least test 700 sats, even if it heads down to 200 eventually. Probably this "prediction" is invalidated, unless Bitcoin goes on a serious tear in the next 3 weeks and leaves alts in the dust.