SPY Getting Ready To Break Down

I have not posted in a while. My goal is to post weekly updates. I incorporate several indicators for my market sentiment model, including interest rates, EM capital flows, and gold.

All indicators are based on academic papers, most notably several by Wouter Keller.

Sentiment Model Indicators:

Interest Rates: Flipped defensive today
EM: Defensive since Feb 2nd
Gold: Defensive since Feb 2nd

We are now in a defensive regime. Financial conditions are showing signs of tightening, with HYG being the leading candidate. Markets are coming around to the idea that inflation will be higher for longer (CPI, employment, etc), and earnings compression will need to take place.

Technically, the SPY is forming a Wykoff distribution pattern. I am looking to take risk off before a breakdown lower to 380 over the next several weeks. A sustained rally above 418 will void the distribution pattern.

Comments are welcome!