VIX indicates Probable SPX Bottom

Several of my recent US stock market posts have noted that a major peak of the bull move since March of 2020 could be made in December 2021.
The SPX decline from the 11/22/21 top appears to probably be a correction within an on going bull move.

During the decline from late November 2021 the VIX has had six consecutive breaks above the upper Bollinger band - the most in 2021. This implies selling exhaustion.

Aditionally, "Investors Business Daily" notes that when the VIX high is more than 20% above its 10 - day moving average (MA) it indicates a potentiial stock market bottom. In the prior six trading days VIX has been 20% above the 10 - day MA three times. The reading on 12/03/21 was 45% above the 10 - day MA.

Sometimes VIX can have bullish divergence similar to the 10/04/21 bottom. SPX lower low with VIX lower high. Assuming this time
VIX does not have a bullish divergence, there's a high probability the SPX completed a correction bottom on 12/03/21.

If the SPX can rally into a new all-time high in December 2021 it could be a major top.

Mark

코멘트:

For some reason the label on the upper chart and the date listed below the 10/04/21 bottom was in tiny print size.

The upper chart is SPX.
The green up arrow at the far right indicates 10/04/21