Chart update: You can see that when the 5EMA dropped down into the froth zone in mid-January that the markets did indeed begin a decline as the chart predicted. I've added a third yellow line across the top at the point where markets have reversed in the past. That area is around 19 and with the 5EMA currently at 17 this suggests a few more down days ahead, though certainly not without a few rally days thrown in.
This is simply the 5EMA set up the way I like it but it's just the 5EMA of the daily $VIX meaning that any daily chart of the $VIX with a 5EMA will give the same reading. I just prefer this set up as it's more graphic.
Caution and caveat: This chart has worked well with the current parameters since early 2012, but in late 2011 the 5EMA rose to 40 +/- before the markets reversed so there is the chance given the current market environment that the 5EMA may rise well above the 19 area before markets reverse. Should that happen, then the parameters would need to be adjusted. But we're not there yet.
GL
This is simply the 5EMA set up the way I like it but it's just the 5EMA of the daily $VIX meaning that any daily chart of the $VIX with a 5EMA will give the same reading. I just prefer this set up as it's more graphic.
Caution and caveat: This chart has worked well with the current parameters since early 2012, but in late 2011 the 5EMA rose to 40 +/- before the markets reversed so there is the chance given the current market environment that the 5EMA may rise well above the 19 area before markets reverse. Should that happen, then the parameters would need to be adjusted. But we're not there yet.
GL