Crude consolidates

6월 21일

Brent and WTI crude were little-changed this morning. Both contracts are now trading up at levels last seen at the end of April. This contrasts with where oil prices were just over a fortnight ago when both Brent and WTI were trading at four month lows, following the OPEC/OPEC+ meetings. Since then, Brent and WTI have added 10.6% and 11.6% respectively. Yesterday, crude oil made back losses from Wednesday when prices backed and filled after what has been an extraordinary run so far this month. The question remains whether crude can continue to push up further in the absence of either a pull-back or a period of consolidation? The daily MACDs are breaking above the ‘neutral’ line and suggest that the momentum continues to favour the upside. But this alone isn’t sufficient evidence that the rally will continue. The outlook for demand growth remains crucial for sentiment. While current economic data suggest that the world’s largest economy is doing OK, the signals from China are more difficult to interpret. Things are made more problematic as the EU looks to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, adding to those promised by the US.