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ridethepig | Energy Overbought

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A good time to update the Oil chart after the OPEC desperation leg. Those following the previously posted long-term macro chart will remember the breakout we have been tracking:

On the demand side, manufacturing remains sluggish and we are again outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day with only one direction for Oil in the long-term.

For the flows I continue to sell rallies, this works nicely as a hedge versus the USD devaluation / reflationary theme for 1H20. A major breakdown here will cause for a reassessment of the USDCAD macro map for 2020.

Remember we traded some of the swing highs previously to the tick:

Overall, I see the case for meaningful Oil weakness in 2020, but if we get significant USD devaluation - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger Oil risk lies to the downside. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc.

Good luck all those selling rallies in Oil.

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Weekly looks very interesting..