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WTI Weekly Chart Analysis

mxb1961의

Chart Setup:
Traditional Pivots – Yearly (Red)
Camarilla Pivots – Yearly (Plum)
Volume Area – Light Pink
Opening Range – Light Grey
Fixed Range Volume Profile – Scoped to a one-year boundary. The only change to the default setting is the fixed rows changed from 24 to 240.

Stochastics:
I use a dual stochastic with one set at default (blue) and one set to a 60/5/3 (60 is roughly a monthly view at 4.3 x 14).

Recent action moved up from oversold in April-2020
Both timeframes are well into bullish range

DMI:
Set to default settings

+DMI crossed up over -DMI 23-November-2020
The pattern evolving since this cross setting up is bullish
Key point to watch is if the +DMI can break above the -DMI highs from 05-January-2015 and 20-April-2020. If +DMI can make it to this level, a possible conversion to a bull market could be evolving
Focusing on current move, I think that the weekly DMI indicator will be key in long term trades. However, the DMI is an extremely lagging indicator so it will be key to combine this with pivot levels, volume area, and opening range across multiple time frames

Traditional Pivot (Yearly)

2021, compared to the 5 previous years, has significant larger spacing between levels
2016 and 2017 pivots aligned as has the pivots between 2018 thru 2020. This type of consolidation could be signal of larger movement for 2021
Focusing on weekly chart, I think the drop in April-2020 was met with heavy reactive buying that quickly drove price back thru R2 with consolidation until end of 2020
First major target for 2021 is R1 at 75.7x. There are other items to consider that will be outlined later

Camarilla Pivot (Yearly)

Seems to work better when levels are compressed and on-going consolidation
This week’s action (08-February-2021) put price at the R2. This week will be important to watch
Note the spread in levels in 2021 compared to the past 6 years

Overall, I think the spread in levels of both the yearly traditional and camarilla pivots point to a volatile 2021 with wide swings off key pivot levels.

Volume Profile:

The volume profile from 2015 thru 2019 was compressed year over year
2021 saw a large volume area in 2020 but ended with a point of control (POC) near the top of it

2014: Put in a large range for volume area and a POC near 101.9x. With the exception of 01-October-2018, this volume area has never been tested.
2016: Opened below the 2015 VA but was brought back up by middle of year.
A study of volume for 2017 thru 2020 looks like price has pulled back to the established volume areas.
My target for current move is to test the bottom of the 2014 volume area. There is a vol POC from 2018 which could provide resistance at 68.7x. If price pushes above this line and tests the 2014 line, then will look at 68.7x for support.

Opening Range:
I use the first 5 weeks of the year to be the opening range of the year. The opening ranges from 2014 is show here.
The midpoint of opening ranges and volume areas are key points to watch as price evolves.