New year with old sentiments and tendencies

2021년 1월 4일

New 2021 year has started without revelations and breakdowns of existing tendencies. Markets have somehow routinely continued to grow in the direction of risky assets and to decline in safe-haven assets.

The logic in this can be found without too many problems: the stimulus package in the US, adopted at the end of 2020, promises more money to the god of money, plus a trade deal between the UK and the EU removed one of the most problematic political issues. Also, as usual, there are plenty of hopes - vaccines, a new US President, and a global economic recovery ahead.

It is typical for the year 2020, but even more reasons can be cited against current sentiments: lockdowns, since the pandemic is not going to subside, despite the start of the vaccination process in the world (there are already more than 10 million vaccinated around the world). And since lockdowns are in the game, then you should not count on a quick recovery of the economy.

But if 2020 taught anything, it is that the world can be perceived as one-sided as possible: seeing the positive and ignoring the negative.

Judging by the fact that Bitcoin has exceeded 35K, in 2021 the markets still prefer to see only the positive. There is much more vaccine news on the horizon that is positive by default (with the exception of side effects reports or disruptions to vaccination plans).

The first working week of the new year will be pretty eventful: US labor market stats, elections of two senators who will determine the balance of power in the Senate, the OPEC + meeting, retail sales in the Eurozone. So the week will not be boring.