COVID-19 seems to have brought out the short sightedness of our societies into full light. 1 month into this dark tragic "centurion" event, and central blanks and governments have completed blown all their reserves, and the masses already believe that the economic damage (to the stock market) will soon be over.
My longer term vision suggests that we have barely felt the blow yet and need to maintain a mindset that this could go on for months or even years.
Oil's current Eliott wave chart suggests we may not bottom until the $10-12.5 level. If it breeches $10 then OMG, I cannot fathom what would happen as it would suggest we are in an Elliott downturn that is off any historical charts dating back 200 years. (I think that scenario is possible if we completely run out of oil storage space due to the 80% downturn in demand).
In any case, if we throw that doomsday view aside for the moment, we would still be lucky to see oil at $40 by 2022. The total economic impact of that... your guess is as good as mine... but it is not bright for the next year at least.
My longer term vision suggests that we have barely felt the blow yet and need to maintain a mindset that this could go on for months or even years.
Oil's current Eliott wave chart suggests we may not bottom until the $10-12.5 level. If it breeches $10 then OMG, I cannot fathom what would happen as it would suggest we are in an Elliott downturn that is off any historical charts dating back 200 years. (I think that scenario is possible if we completely run out of oil storage space due to the 80% downturn in demand).
In any case, if we throw that doomsday view aside for the moment, we would still be lucky to see oil at $40 by 2022. The total economic impact of that... your guess is as good as mine... but it is not bright for the next year at least.
코멘트:
Wowzers. Did not think my third wave target would be hit so quickly! Could oil prices possibly go straight into the single digits?!
코멘트:
Hmmm... anybody noticing this yet?!
코멘트:
$1.25 per barrel. Okee dokee. Bull market still intact...
코멘트:
I think it is time to completely avoid trading oil until society returns to normal, which may be months away. There are rumours the most traded USO is about to go extinct. oilprice.com/Latest-...us-Oil-Futures.html. I worry that both longs and shorts will get shafted when such things happen.