USOIL: Uptrend failure is possible

2016년 12월 27일

Oil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump.

This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-26/us-prepares-sell-its-oil-reserves
Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

2016년 12월 28일

노트

We have to see if oil can hit 54,74 within today and the next two days.
If it doesn't and the uptrend time expires without reaching the target, we could expect a downtrend to start.

2017년 1월 3일

액티브 트레이드

2017년 3월 9일

노트

Spot on.