The start of a long-term bear?

equality between wave (Y) and (W)

코멘트:

possible short-term structure

코멘트:

break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears

코멘트:

the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead

코멘트:

I came up with a different count

코멘트:

I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure

purple count is my preferred structure

코멘트:

Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again

코멘트:

and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story
another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above
any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)

코멘트:

코멘트:

코멘트:

possible bigger picture

코멘트:

almost there?

코멘트:

코멘트:

wave {A} done?

코멘트:

코멘트:

short-term bullish count

wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)

코멘트:

코멘트:

the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80

코멘트:

코멘트:

short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey

코멘트:

코멘트:

코멘트:

if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree);
if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.

코멘트:

코멘트:

코멘트:

short-term count

코멘트:

complex wave 2?

코멘트:

the alternative count

코멘트:

running triangle for wave (B)?

코멘트:

코멘트:

a flat for wave (B)?

코멘트:

코멘트:

wave (C) is likely underway
alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)

코멘트:

the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far

코멘트:

코멘트:

min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63

코멘트:

possible short-term count

코멘트:

코멘트:

코멘트:

flat for wave 2?

코멘트:

코멘트:

break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway

코멘트:

코멘트:

OR

코멘트:

Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal

However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below

코멘트:

Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure

코멘트:

divergence between RSI & Price

코멘트:

코멘트:

triangle wave 4 ?

코멘트:

코멘트:

or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3

코멘트:

코멘트:

wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)

코멘트:

코멘트:

almost there?

코멘트:

코멘트:

An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place.
Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.

코멘트:

if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).

코멘트:

코멘트:

There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure

코멘트:

코멘트:

short-term count

or

코멘트:

코멘트:

The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.

코멘트:

코멘트:

We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive.
If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.