Unemployment is inevitable according to market history.

2022년 7월 7일

Graph of the inflation rate with unemployment rate laid over top.

EVERY TIME that inflation has peaked and rolled over, unemployment has spiked shortly after.

If you wonder why Powell says things like "The labor market is unsustainable." it's because he and every central banker in the world (more or less) are trying to kill inflation.

Inflation dies, it takes out employment.

So the next time someone points to labor statistics as a sign of economic health, you can tell them that employment is transitory.

2022년 8월 12일

노트

Inflation just peaked and rolled over.

It'll be interesting to see unemployment rate over the next few months.

2022년 9월 6일

노트

Unemployment rose from 3.5% to 3.7% in last weeks stats.
I believe that is just the beginning of this trend.

We're likely far from any kind of unemployment peak. Best guess is 2023 for that. Will have to see how it evolves.