I am updating the strategy now the Monday has started. Further, someone requested me to forecast 1st and 2nd Quarter USDTRY so will try my best.
The stochastic is currently negative again, and since we have fundamentally strong SELLING pressure upto 21st January and end of month, the cap is likely well protected 13.77-14.2500. Technically we have never been able to reach much above any of them for a prolonged period of time, and besides 14.00 never was assaulted. This tells a story and we should be taking that into account.
For now, I liquidate LONG (in profit in fact), and go short in 13.45-13.75 range. Stop-loss above 14.35 (for safety reasons). My initial objective is 11.80. 1st Quarter: January I expect average 12.50, February 11.50, March 10.75. The low is expected for the 1st Quarter to be 9.75 and the high 13.50. For the 2nd Quarter we may see little higher ranges and I feel we should have an average for April 12.50, May 13.00 and June 14.00. I feel after we have declined to the lows in 1st Quarter, market will condition the rate to move slowly higher. Anyway, let's see how it all develops, and will update if any changes. have a great day everyone.
The stochastic is currently negative again, and since we have fundamentally strong SELLING pressure upto 21st January and end of month, the cap is likely well protected 13.77-14.2500. Technically we have never been able to reach much above any of them for a prolonged period of time, and besides 14.00 never was assaulted. This tells a story and we should be taking that into account.
For now, I liquidate LONG (in profit in fact), and go short in 13.45-13.75 range. Stop-loss above 14.35 (for safety reasons). My initial objective is 11.80. 1st Quarter: January I expect average 12.50, February 11.50, March 10.75. The low is expected for the 1st Quarter to be 9.75 and the high 13.50. For the 2nd Quarter we may see little higher ranges and I feel we should have an average for April 12.50, May 13.00 and June 14.00. I feel after we have declined to the lows in 1st Quarter, market will condition the rate to move slowly higher. Anyway, let's see how it all develops, and will update if any changes. have a great day everyone.