Technical analysis confirms fundamental assumptions on USD/RUB
Last week after the economical sanctions brought by European Union (to russian oil companies mainly) and USA (gas giant Gazprom was included) was the first week when the USDRUB closed over important resistance level of 37.0 (from chart you can see that it tried to break this level last 3 weeks in a row). And there is still a space for growth on W1 graph.
The same may be seen on all timeframes from H1 to Monthly. The pair is on its historical maximums.
Fundamentally we are about to see instability period of russian economy. Russian oil and gas monopolies are not allowed to borrow on foreign markets, that should worsen their solvency. Foreign investments will soon leave the country (stock markets also go down), so lack of currency in the country may soon reinforce the upwards rally. Current situation is the result of Putin's agression to Ukraine. New acts of agression probably will further decrease the value of russian ruble in eyes of international community, monitoring news to catch the moment for increasing long position size is pragmatical approach.
Technically the breakthrough the important resistance should at least end up in reaching 39.0 level. I don't think that 38.0, which stopped the rally last week, can resist for a long time taking into account both fundamental and technical analysis. I would say that 36.8 is good StopLoss for agressive short-term strategy (higher lot size risking 1-2% of deposit is possible), 35.0 is good for conservative strategy. But my main Stop Loss is actually the question "Will Russia and its economy ever be samely attractive for investors after what they did in Ukraine"?
Trailing the Stop Loss to Open Price when price reaches 39.0, doubling the long position after day or week closes over 39.5-39.7 seem very pragmatic to me.
The same may be seen on all timeframes from H1 to Monthly. The pair is on its historical maximums.
Fundamentally we are about to see instability period of russian economy. Russian oil and gas monopolies are not allowed to borrow on foreign markets, that should worsen their solvency. Foreign investments will soon leave the country (stock markets also go down), so lack of currency in the country may soon reinforce the upwards rally. Current situation is the result of Putin's agression to Ukraine. New acts of agression probably will further decrease the value of russian ruble in eyes of international community, monitoring news to catch the moment for increasing long position size is pragmatical approach.
Technically the breakthrough the important resistance should at least end up in reaching 39.0 level. I don't think that 38.0, which stopped the rally last week, can resist for a long time taking into account both fundamental and technical analysis. I would say that 36.8 is good StopLoss for agressive short-term strategy (higher lot size risking 1-2% of deposit is possible), 35.0 is good for conservative strategy. But my main Stop Loss is actually the question "Will Russia and its economy ever be samely attractive for investors after what they did in Ukraine"?
Trailing the Stop Loss to Open Price when price reaches 39.0, doubling the long position after day or week closes over 39.5-39.7 seem very pragmatic to me.