USDJPY, downward pressure?

On the daily chart the USDJPY pair is currently trading below the long-term Guppy GMMA, which in turn is showing signs of beginning expansion.Furthermore, price recently has formed a nearly symmetric triangle . Looking on the weekly chart, price has penetrated the long-term GMMA, which in turn started to trade sideways and beginning to move towards compression. Taking all of this in to account, there is a high probability that the price is in fact consolidating within the triangle, before continue to move downhill.
However, due to the unpredictability of the markets, two main scenarios can be proposed:


Scenario 1:

Short, if price breaks the triangle to the downside and closes below the 119.04 level
Stoploss @ 119.9, just above the middle line of the triangle
Target 1 @ 117.85, 50% base of the triangle
Target 2 @ 116.38, 76.4% base of the triangle, near a long-term support/resistance 115.90-119.95 area
Target 3 @ 115.48, 100% base of the triangle, if long-term support/resistance 115.90-119.95 area is broken


Scenario 2:

Long, if price breaks the triangle to the upside and closes above the 120.98 level
Stoploss @ 119.80, just below the middle line of the triangle
Target 1 @ 122.61, 50% base of the triangle
Target 2 @ 123.63, 76.4% base of the triangle, near a long-term support/resistance 124.00-124.10 area
Target 3 @ 124.54, 100% base of the triangle, if long-term support/resistance 124.00-124.10 area is broken


Happy trading and good luck!