ridethepig | USDJPY BOJ Cuts Coming!

2019년 10월 22일

A good time to update the USDJPY chart as we enter into this next chapter of USD weakness. While the market has been cleansing defensive positioning with JPY longs established on trade war and brexit fears unwinding. This is coming to an end and the optimism is starting to fade, so we can look for where to engage.

For the long term wave chart a simple Triangle in play:

With that same triangle which was once acting as support now serving as resistance:

We are gridlock until BoJ comes back in focus later this month. I am expecting the BoJ to cut once more this month, and once cleared we will once again be at the mercy to risk gyrations. For this reason I remain bearish in the medium term with 106 and 102 targets to resume via a helping hand from some new risk-off news flows. To the top side, I think 110.2x looks like a very attractive level to engage in short exposure and fade the optimism rally.

I am wary of EURJPY profit taking also taking place as JPY seasonality kicks back in:

For the trigger, we are using a similar setup to the one previously used in GBPJPY:

Let's open the conversation for all those trading the BoJ this week, jump in with your ideas and charts to further the conversation for all.

Thanks and good luck...