ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.12.30

2019년 12월 30일

In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting:

In the next diagram let us imagine the channel highs had broken and resistance was cracked - then the flows would be invalidated and closed (the capital would have exhausted). In this case, the highs held as anticipated, there follows large offers from smart money pinging out price and sending loud signals that the move is not weak - how can anything be weak if it cannot be broken?

Or imagine this next diagram with a before and after the fact instead. Now there is no question we were still looking for sells and expecting large hands to defend. This is painfully felt by retail after the breakup move... although bulls achieved nothing and could not hold the stops, whereas with those sharp enough to sell above the highs are fading the exuberance and at least in this example we are crippling the opposition backward for a certain length of time enough to eliminate risk:

For those wanting to track Gold in the background with Santanomics in full swing:

Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!