Since the start of the year, price has been in a HH/HL uptrend. Following this structure, we can assume that price will do the same this time round.
The 0.786 level at 105.4 is likely to hold due to a) it being a fib level b) being a previous 3-touch resistance. We can enter here with a stop loss below the previous low at around 104.25 with a take profit at the 106.6 level, but this isn't the highest probability approach (I don't see anything wrong with it though).
What I'll be placing a blind short entry on is the 106.6 level. This is because:
My take profit will be the equal highs around 105.7.
My stop loss will be around 107.06, but allowing for a wider stop at the top of the thrust candle at 107.3 wouldn't be a bad idea.
In summary:
Setup 1 (long up to 106.6):
Entry: 104.845
TP: 106.598
Stop: 104.24
Setup 2 (higher prob. short from 106.6):
Entry: 106.598
TP: 105.725
Stop: 107.06 or 107.3 for a wider stop
Let me know what you think and give me a follow for more.
Happy trading!
P.s this isn't financial advice, please check whether Mercury is in retrograde before trading
The 0.786 level at 105.4 is likely to hold due to a) it being a fib level b) being a previous 3-touch resistance. We can enter here with a stop loss below the previous low at around 104.25 with a take profit at the 106.6 level, but this isn't the highest probability approach (I don't see anything wrong with it though).
What I'll be placing a blind short entry on is the 106.6 level. This is because:
- The swing low in 2011 and the swing high in 2015 forms our long term fib. It's 0.618 level is our 106.6 level.
- The SH/SL from February and March last year form our current fib range. It's 0.5 level is also our 106.6 level.
- It's a multiple touch (I counted 4 where it was respected) support level throughout last year.
- People will have seen this and recognise it as the nearest long-term resistance over the months. This means there's a high chance there will be lots of limit orders here.
My take profit will be the equal highs around 105.7.
My stop loss will be around 107.06, but allowing for a wider stop at the top of the thrust candle at 107.3 wouldn't be a bad idea.
In summary:
Setup 1 (long up to 106.6):
Entry: 104.845
TP: 106.598
Stop: 104.24
Setup 2 (higher prob. short from 106.6):
Entry: 106.598
TP: 105.725
Stop: 107.06 or 107.3 for a wider stop
Let me know what you think and give me a follow for more.
Happy trading!
P.s this isn't financial advice, please check whether Mercury is in retrograde before trading
코멘트:
Unfortunately our first entry didn't get hit. However, the trade idea was correct (so far). Keeping my eye on the resistance for a decent entry.