Is USD/JPY Ready for the BOJ Verdict?

2023년 10월 4일

The USD/JPY pair stands near 149.20, reflecting recent losses and concerns about possible interventions in the market. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surged to 0.8%, a level not seen since 2013. In the US, JOLTS Job Openings exceeded expectations, suggesting a positive employment scenario. Key upcoming events include US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, closely monitored by traders. Initially, the pair dropped to 147.33 due to rumors of Japanese FX intervention but regained stability above 149.00. The increase in JGB yield pressures the Bank of Japan to reconsider its yield-curve cap and negative interest rate policy. Simultaneously, the US Treasury yield rises to 4.865%, the highest since 2007, strengthening the US dollar. Japanese officials are cautious about the timing and purpose of intervention, reminding traders of the 150.00 intervention level from the previous year. In particular, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester leans toward a rate hike, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic prefers patience. US job openings for August exceeded expectations, a potential indicator for the Fed's monetary policy. This week's US employment data could influence the Fed's approach. Traders eagerly await the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI and speculate on Japanese FX market intervention. The week concludes with a focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls data, influencing market sentiment. The price may break or even fake an upward breakout on H4 and then come down to the 147 zone to recover all the liquidity left in the market. Let me know what you think. Good evening from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.