Following the Brexit vote the British Pound has been seeing weakness against all major pairs, with the Dollar/Pound being one of the headline casualties. The dollar took a 150 year high against Sterling at around 0.825, with a double-top (1st being mid October, the 2nd later in the month. A seemingly more measured reaction on the pair to the US Election result in early November and the words coming out of the US regarding rate decisions suggests there could be a reversal on the cards. Currently the price is sat within the 23.6% and 38.2% Fib levels - a lower-high around the 0.806 mark (38.2% Fib extension) would signal a bearish move. My entry point is just above the 23.6% Fib, say 0.808, with a target of the 61.8% extension at 0.777. This would give a 5:1 risk/reward ratio. The alternative move is the red arrow on the chart, a move back towards the 0.824 high which would suggest further Dollar strength on the cards.
코멘트:
Well, the Stop value was slightly underestimated but formed a really good entry point for a position in favour of the Pound. As it is, I stood aside and let this one pass rather than enter in. Anyone looking for a further entry will be interested in what the price does in the next few days - if it is going to roughly follow the 2/1 Gann ray I would have my eye on 0.811 as the next test.