Victor.Y.F 의 FX_IDC:USDCNY 용 "A Brave New World" an ideal from Civilization V

More trading less showing in 2017. 1Hr/4Hr trading are using EMA system from FXCM desktop and learning swing trading "Fractal Quad Components" pine program original source from Pythagoras.

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We are always saying: "In the market we trust". But wait, can you really see the truth? After the history DATA was sabotaged from 2nd. Feb. 2015? By central banks manupilating too much? By using a bigger mistake to cover the less one?
The market is a part of human civilization and human natrue. Never play fire with it and history DATA must be respect. Or the consequences are coming, soon...
"When everything's gone wild let the nature do the rest." - Victor.Y.Y

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Sorry for the wrong typing I blamed my iPad input programme and maybe too much coffee today ...

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The intelligence level of China national security and the level of China foreign relationship is down grade from stupidized level into rubbish level, as I predicted. It looks like a war will be guaranteed, sadly speaking, I predicted it last year. Good point is that the North and the South will be reunited as one country and the nuclear will be discard.

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News in Chinese

We now know the THAAD will be settled in 3-4 months.

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Dog's gone mad ......

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interesting... is it?

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A warning !!! Renminbi is gonna collapse in March!!! We now know in the meeting PBOC is showing the weakness again and refused to hike. CFETS, SDR basket, BIS basket, are all near the edge of Abyss!!! Be careful! Sell all of your A shares !!!
They'er kidnaping all Chinese people's wealthy by keeping 3000 billion reserves and continuing devaluation. This is obviously stupid. Because all of the wealthy of Chinese people is far more than 3000 billion! The inflation is coming, ECB and BOJ are all doing hike and tightening but PBOC. They always tend to be wrong, again and again... Several people should be replaced in the PBOC.
They're too old...

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Let's see what's gonna happen if FRB huge hike and Renminbi refusing to hike in this week.( In fact, BOJ and ECB are both tightening. BOJ cut mid-term bunds purchasing and ECB cut 200 billion purchasing)
The most important thing isn't the prediction right or wrong but the simulations and the emergency response plan which PBOC must be ready for it. From my point of view There's NO such plan because they're too cozy and too old to be flexible.

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Source:
Stupid bought it at the TOP again... Chinese capital is the worst capital without any risk management and without any fundemantal analysis in the world. Most of the capitals are tending to transfer money out from the poor system.
The money will keep flowing out and flowing in violately unless the Country builds the forex market for enterprises to protect their Renminbi's assets devaluation and containing the Renminbi capital without flowing out, which is Bernanky keeping saying about. But the possibility is so small......

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Key meeting

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Source: White House Website

"SECRETARY ROSS: And the most interesting thing to me was they expressed an interest in reducing their net trade balance because of the impact it’s having on money supply and inflation. That's the first time I’ve heard them say that in a bilateral context."

I want to make this simple and clear. USDCNY and USDCHN will be pegging at some where for several months and the Renminibi will be getting stronger. China foreign reserves shall flat and will decrease.
North Korea nuclear will be deleted with or without China's permission. Good for China's safety long run.

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You guys may have noticed that this analysis was published on 5th. Jan 2017. At that time I didn't know US-China trade talk would happen in April.

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Source:

My point is clear. Fear this fear that blah blah... If you have the simulations and emergency plans then there will be no fears. An negative attitude is why China built the biggest useless Great Wall for defense but just a culture wonder. Just like forex traders plan the trade, trade the plan and use stop loss.
Chinese strategies are rubbish as I predicted before because of a stubborn mind. Using trade condition for exchanging geopolitic condition is a new version of cut land and pay the bill just like Qing Dynasty did hundreds years ago. China should use Taiwan interests for exchanging the North Korea economic reform and discard nuclear development. It's the real deal. Taiwan is the core interests and USA knew it. Over 500,000 Chinese sacrificed their lives in North Korea, what if they fought for the Taiwan liberation? That's the best deal I can image.

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Stupidizing ...

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Interesting ...... news in Chinese
Source:
Time will tell us. From yearly cycle perspective the future is bright for people of China but most people always are on the wrong side, as same as the speculators sentiments in the forex market.

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I just visited "the 17th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition (Auto Shanghai 2017) ". From my observation there're too many people but less buyer in it, or saying there're more exhibition but commercial.
Now in China, the money flow is almost frozen from stocks falling and commodities price failing. All money flow was trapped in those failed markets. People of China are getting poorer. Is it good for western civilization? The answer is NO.
Imagine there're 1.3 billion people in the world are getting poor, and the inflation is going higher from DXY purchase power? I'm telling you guys those central banks are doing it wrongly by artificial inflation from negative interests, especially PBOC is worse.
The future is clear, Renminbi will be getting stronger and US Dollar is gonna fall. I'm very confident about it now. Let's see how those markets interpret it.
BTW, I'd like to buy a bike from Harley Davison but not now. I wish President Trump would help me to buy it. Lol...

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As a trader and an analyst, I'm seeing an extreme negative sentiment from A shares market in this week from Chinese small speculators. This is a beginning or an ending? What I could predict is, if this is the beginning of the failing then there could be some huge events happen from the old system unstable of PBOC's money policy mistakes and people of China is getting poorer. Do you guys remember what's happened after the devaluation was announced in 2015?

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Source:
view discretion advised ( it was announced at the 11th.)

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Thank you BOE and U.K! For saving Renminbi!
Thank you BOJ and Japan! For saving A shares!
Thank you FRB and President Trump and America people! For supporting always!
This publish ends here! 40 months cycle completed!

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Guys, expecting an first Renminbi's hike in the Aug. 2017, the only hike for this year.

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The CFETS index (92.74 a second wave) , BIS basket (93.56 a second wave), SDR basket (93.54 harmonic double bottom) are all rising.
This's a signal for all Chinese traders, please take your last chance, for investment consideration...

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We'll very quickly pull back to USDCNY 6.80-6.81 ( 0.786 of the first impulse) for pushing China inflation then Chinese investors shold sell US dollar and buy Renminbi back before it's too late.

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We're doing a pull back to 6.83 plat form soon, this may be pegging with US dollar for 20 months, sharing a same inflation with USA.
To be clear CNYUSD is still in an up trend with China inflation control is tightening than the one in the USA, until we change this view, before it happens, like always.

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A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.

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Perspective... very long term, God bless us live that long...

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A new target around 5.3 has been predicted.

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A Renminbi's deposit hike or second devaluation (6.8 pegging has been predicted before) or China inflation has been predicted today, looks like the news has been leak already. People are commencing on purchasing in the city, like Brexit.
The 5.3 is still our target, we now have the 4th. wave complex.

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With the DXY stable USDCNY may rise back to 6.80 then 6.96 to form an harmonic pattern top in a complex wave.

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Source: ( We don't trade news but Trump is a devaluation side, this may be against him. The failure of the inflation shall make the Yuan weak)

Rising back to form an harmonic top soon... with US dollar rising.

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We may have reached the important low point at 6.50 here.

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Now we're going to 6.80-6.90. Funny thing is PBOC still doing it wrongly, culturally.

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A Gartley pattern will stop it? May be, or may be not.

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We've predicted China first hike window, on 18th. Feb. 2018, 5th. Mar. 2018, 21st. Mar. 2018. The stock markets are "pre-hike" correcting like 2015 after the first hike in USA.
After Chinese Renminbi is hiking the US Dollar should pause, so it's still dropping after some weak bounce.

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Source link: TV (This looks like a devaluation but not an hike)

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Traders! RISK OFF mode!
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.

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Chinese Renminbi should hike in deposit interests and devaluation to the core inflation. We're waiting for Mr. Yi Gang for more clues.

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We're approaching USDCNY 11th. Aug. 2015 same level here.
What if you've invested China SZSE index

What if you've invested XAUCNY

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Now the pegging, during a trade tariffs negotiation. ( 6.3-6.4)

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The Renminbi’s rising may have been over now be careful here. After checked the CFETS BIS and SDR.

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The Renminbi BIS and the SDR have repealed the US hike, the CFETS has some lagging, a rising of Chinese Yuan since 2017 May will be over soon. It will devaluate again but not for the US dollar ( believe it or not, they will sink together. )

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Now it’s a good time window for Renminbi basic deposite hike in 2 months, July or August. The April action from PBOC has been proven a failure, they’re always wrong like predicted before. Those politicians don’t understand the forex market, they have no idea what and where is the market at all. (Too old to understand it)
We should be prepared for the worst scenario in China, if the PBOC make a second mistake. No one will make the same mistake by twice, believe it or not, they can make it worse.

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moving nicely, should have more weakness

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Prediction now is supporting a raise in the Yuan's basic deposit interests ( 1.5% annually) in August to catch up with the fed's personal deposit rate ( 6.7% annually) : possibilities is more than 50 percent by now) See? China has lost already, inflation too high, Chinese people are poor by 5.2% now.
USDCNY should go higher until FRB supply it.

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The RMB SDR is at new low 92.70 after last week close where has been lower than previous double bottom ( formed in 2017 May and August) where was at 93.54.
The RMB BIS and CFETS index has not dropped into new lows yet but we will watch it closely in this monthly close.
Technically speaking in SDR measuring, RMB index should go lower after the new low has been created.

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Should be pegging now but the PBOC maybe stupid like before.

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Chinese Yuan SDR basket is showing a top near the neck line, the USDCNY pegging should work now. Like 2008 QE, the global core inflation will be synchronized. This's saying the major central banks are working together to push the core inflation in every country. The pegging should work until PBOC hikes due to the China stock market is too high. It's very low now, right?

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We persist in this USDCNY 7.0 is an unbreakable. The forex market major US dollar pairs are pulled back to the same level like 2015 also China stock market is in a comfortable zone for release the risks. At this time PBOC will act to raise Renminbi’s personal deposit interests (in fact, it’s happened already, an hidden one)the hike in Chinese Renminbi should be announced soon. We’ve seen western market crash right? Capital is flowing into China here.

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On chart