Divergence here, divergence there

2024년 4월 16일

Fundamentals & Sentiment

USD:
The sentiment has been bullish for a while as US CPI remains sticky. As the dollar gained strength. However, it became overpopulated with buyers, as evident from CFTC reports. So, it should take some trigger for those buyers to start covering their longs - a good potential for dollar downside. The CESI differential for USDCNH has been forming a decent divergence since February.

CNH: The economic data came out pretty mixed this morning. It seems the market focused more on slacking Industrial Production YoY and Retail Sales YoY as ChinaA50 closed the session with a sharp recovery, viewing the miss in data as another reason for stimulus from PBoC.

Technical & Other

- According to seasonals DXY should stay flat for the next 3 weeks

Setup: S(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 15m
Medium-term: Sideways
Long-term: Uptrend
Min target: range boundary
Risk: 0.14% (0.5R<)
Entry: Market

2024년 4월 18일

매매 수동청산

Took profits as the market is near my target area and the price action shows rejection