Here we are tracking CHF which continues within the wide choppy range;
From a strictly technical studies perspective...it is starting to show signs of trading oversold and there may be further unwinding of longs to come with the next leg in the USD weakness:
On the political side, Brexit outflows continue pouring into CHF as the destruction of the UK economy is positive in the immediate term and supports European currencies.
On the macro side, we are now entering into Fed flows for the next 25bps cut and QE Lite. This is going to be perceived as more dovish than markets are expecting due to complacency and the narrowing rate differentials is leading to a weaker USD.
Risks come from SNB intervention and a hawkish Fed via more confirmation of hard data softening (both unlikely in the immediate term).
Thanks for all the likes and comments, keep them coming.
From a strictly technical studies perspective...it is starting to show signs of trading oversold and there may be further unwinding of longs to come with the next leg in the USD weakness:
On the political side, Brexit outflows continue pouring into CHF as the destruction of the UK economy is positive in the immediate term and supports European currencies.
On the macro side, we are now entering into Fed flows for the next 25bps cut and QE Lite. This is going to be perceived as more dovish than markets are expecting due to complacency and the narrowing rate differentials is leading to a weaker USD.
Risks come from SNB intervention and a hawkish Fed via more confirmation of hard data softening (both unlikely in the immediate term).
Thanks for all the likes and comments, keep them coming.
코멘트:
