From April 2002 to August 2014, USDJPY is trading below the 200 week moving average. since 2014, it is trading above the 200 w moving average and the bollinger band width is tightened. this is a setup for a breakout and I will suggest an upside breakout. USDCHF have already reject to go futher south in two event EURCHF Floor Setup and Abandon event. At this moment SNB is running a massive currency risk. Her asset surges up from 40% of GDP in 2012 to 102% of GDP in 2016 and main exposure in foreign currency. so far compare to other currency like EUR, GBP, JPY.... the depreciation of CHF is very limited. USDCHF seems forming a bottom and set up for a breakout. the DXY is going to consolidate for a while, when USD surge again, look for sign of USDCHF breakout. a nice move should be expected.
코멘트:
typo the first line should be USDCHF instead of USDLPY
