USDCHF has moved in a strong bullish momentum since mid-September. It could possibly head up to the previous high of 0.9470, but I think it is equally possible for the price to retrace back from 0.9409 for the following reasons:
- A gartley pattern might be completed around 0.9409. This level is slightly above 0.9362 — the 0.382 retracement of the downward move since December 2016. So the potential D point in itself could be a strong resistance on higher time frames.
- If the price breaks above the zone 0.9362-0.9409, the next substantial level of resistance would be around 0.9700. This potential massive upward move alone signifies that a breakout from 0.9409 may not be smooth sailing.
- Before the breakout from the triangle, the price didn't touch 0.9071, that is, the bottom of triangle as well as 0.236 retracement. Similarly, after the breakout from the triangle, it didn't touch 0.9155 — a desirable pullback to the top of triangle and also 0.236 retracement. Because the price didn't touch these two supports before going up, I think the bulls may not be strong enough to break the zone mentioned above. So I tend to believe this pair will have a retracement from 0.9409 instead of continuing to uptrend at that level.