US DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:
We’re nearing quarter-end of a Q1 that saw an explosive move develop in the US Dollar. As we near the close tomorrow, prices in USD have moved right back to range support.
The range in the USD has now held through much of March, even as the FOMC began lift-off with their first rate hike since 2018. Next quarter is expected to bring the first 50 basis point hike out of the FOMC, along with questions of how the Fed is going to manage the balance sheet. This can lead to continued USD volatility.
USD/CAD is in the process of setting a fresh 2022 low as of this writing, but perhaps more importantly for the long-term structure, the bullish backdrop produced by the ascending triangle in-place since last summer has been negated.
Much of the recent hastening in price action has posted after the FOMC rate hike, so perhaps this is a jostling of expectations for rate divergence between the Fed and the BoC; but it’s interesting to note how CAD-strength has picked up to go along with this recent pullback in the USD.
From a longer-term perspective, there’s support potential at 1.2070 which has helped to hold the lows in USD/CAD since May of 2015.
We’re nearing quarter-end of a Q1 that saw an explosive move develop in the US Dollar. As we near the close tomorrow, prices in USD have moved right back to range support.
The range in the USD has now held through much of March, even as the FOMC began lift-off with their first rate hike since 2018. Next quarter is expected to bring the first 50 basis point hike out of the FOMC, along with questions of how the Fed is going to manage the balance sheet. This can lead to continued USD volatility.
USD/CAD is in the process of setting a fresh 2022 low as of this writing, but perhaps more importantly for the long-term structure, the bullish backdrop produced by the ascending triangle in-place since last summer has been negated.
Much of the recent hastening in price action has posted after the FOMC rate hike, so perhaps this is a jostling of expectations for rate divergence between the Fed and the BoC; but it’s interesting to note how CAD-strength has picked up to go along with this recent pullback in the USD.
From a longer-term perspective, there’s support potential at 1.2070 which has helped to hold the lows in USD/CAD since May of 2015.