롱

Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained)

업데이트됨

Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession.

No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions
(forced).

Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice.

CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP.

SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout
(yes meaning it has just started).

Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market.

FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen.

Theory breakdown what happens next?

FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero.

The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse.

Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management.

Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts.

If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails.

If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.

노트

200MM TREASURY buyback tomorrow afternoon, Long-End:

"This debt buyback operation will be conducted by Treasury’s fiscal agent, the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), using its FedTrade system. Treasury will conduct buyback operations only with primary dealers as designated by the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY); customers may access buyback operations through a primary dealer"

Did not take them long. Let the YCC begin.