The Dow rallied impressively last week. While the preceding fortnight was consolidation, last week's candle is undeniably bullish. New highs are imminent.
However, I still feel some caution is necessary, and that we are in a consolidation phase that is not yet complete. Many forex and commodity markets have begun to make counter-trend moves - with the Euro, AUD, Gold, Copper bouncing, to name four. Of course, this is all because of the Dollar.
This matters because when we look at the Dow chart, we're looking at an index priced in Dollars. If we were to look at the same index priced in Euros or Pounds, we would see a market that is breaking out more dramatically. Thus, capital is moving to the US to find a safe haven. If the heat comes off these other currencies, albeit temporarily, it may also provide further consolidation in US markets.
But make no mistake, that capital WILL return. The bull market is set to resume - either in this quarter or the next. My first target is a measured move to the 27.6 area. I'm accumulating on dips, preparing for lift-off.
However, I still feel some caution is necessary, and that we are in a consolidation phase that is not yet complete. Many forex and commodity markets have begun to make counter-trend moves - with the Euro, AUD, Gold, Copper bouncing, to name four. Of course, this is all because of the Dollar.
This matters because when we look at the Dow chart, we're looking at an index priced in Dollars. If we were to look at the same index priced in Euros or Pounds, we would see a market that is breaking out more dramatically. Thus, capital is moving to the US to find a safe haven. If the heat comes off these other currencies, albeit temporarily, it may also provide further consolidation in US markets.
But make no mistake, that capital WILL return. The bull market is set to resume - either in this quarter or the next. My first target is a measured move to the 27.6 area. I'm accumulating on dips, preparing for lift-off.