Two Year Projection is Back Down to 2.00 for the US 10 Year Bond
Short term we do not have a crystal ball to know what the rates will do; however, if we project out the timing band of the Intermediate Cycle Lows, we can project that the next ICL will occur as indicated by the blue arrow labeled as "Right shoulder".
Rates could go up or down for the next year, but the projection is that they will roll over eventually and head down towards the ICL before the Cycle is due in the next couple years. If rates break below the cycle trend line as pointed out in the previous post, then they could be heading down to the ICL early. If the surprise to the upside, I would look for a sharp reversal to the downside to get to to ICL within the new timeband.
Rates could go up or down for the next year, but the projection is that they will roll over eventually and head down towards the ICL before the Cycle is due in the next couple years. If rates break below the cycle trend line as pointed out in the previous post, then they could be heading down to the ICL early. If the surprise to the upside, I would look for a sharp reversal to the downside to get to to ICL within the new timeband.