hungry_hippo

US03MY 3 month Yield

TVC:US03MY   US 3M yield
The market has been tanking since the last Fed meeting, now Powell is hinting at another rate cut in Oct. The rate cut is already priced in now, and they're starting to price in another one for Dec or Jan.

I'm beginning to think that Trump wants rate cuts more than he wants a China trade deal since his businesses are all interest rate sensitive, and he's leveraging China tariffs to get what he wants.... zero interest rates.

So I'm thinking maybe a rally on rate cut talks (Powell speaks a couple more time next week), tank on China deal fail, pump towards Fed meeting for the actual rate cut, tank on the Dot Plot, etc... In other words, some major whipsaw at the top of the market, as one would expect at ATH before a recession.

If China does actually sign a deal, expect super pumptardedness to ATH. Either way, I don't think the market tanks until next year when libtards elect a commie as president.
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