How do you evaluate the upside potential on new IPO's UPST

So Upstart looks like a really exciting company.
Ex OG google brain started up this AI lending system that beats out traditional models by a lot.
I like the team, I like the idea, and it's performing well.

with already close to 200% up from it's IPO price though, I'm weary to jump in.
Market cap is at 4.5B which is a little high for me cuz I usually target small cap stocks.
The lending industry is multi trillion dollars though so technically this thing could shoot to the moon.

Would love some advise on how to approach this trade.