숏

Data from ADP, Light Panic, and US Oil Stocks

US Treasury yields began to rise again—and the markets panicked again. It wasn’t the kind of panic when the cries of “we are all going to die” are heard on every streetcorner, but the US stock market’s technology sector has confidently gone into the red.

However, the cryptocurrency market completely ignored this wave, continuing to focus on the positive, like the idea that there are fewer bitcoins in free circulation. It means that their shortage is inevitable, especially with the current increased demand from institutional investors. Once a shortage is inevitable, prices will rise. We’ll not look for flaws in this logic just because they are resolutely at every link in the chain. But it doesn’t matter, common sense has left the cryptocurrency market a long time ago, and any attempt to analyze it from this position will inevitably lead to false predictions.

Once again, we’d note that common sense is absent not only in the cryptocurrency market. The oil market has also completely lost touch with reality. It was especially interesting to watch the oil prices’ reaction to yesterday’s data on the US oil reserves. Still, not so often their growth is 21.5 million barrels per week. It is clear that abnormal frosts are to blame. Still, the figure itself deserves some price compensation. In fact, it doesn’t.

However, the most interesting thing will still happen today, the OPEC Plus meeting can potentially add to the supply on the oil market from 1.5 million b/d (0.5 total + 1 million from Saudi Arabia). And this is much more serious than a local weekly anomaly in the US. Today oil has a good chance to start a correction, so we’ll sell it as actively as possible.

Yesterday’s data from ADP on the US employment still left more questions than answers, although they came out in positive territory (117 against the forecast of 177). But tomorrow we will have official statistics and figures on NFP.