TSLA: Where to next?

So, the week left us in an annoying place. It really didn't leave us with any kind of great entry on any stock to swing into next week, unless you were maintaining a short position from the morning on Friday (because we likely will gap down).

There is still a bit of bullishness poking through in some of the projections, especially for SPY and ES, so that is also equally annoying because it makes short term trading a bit more challenging and tricky. I am just not really feeling anything right now but the least annoying of all is probably TSLA so I figured, at the very least, I will post my observations and analysis on TSLA.

Where we are:

So, TSLA sold off as expected from previous idea. Not sure if it really has anything to do with the twitter news, it was set to sell of regardless IMO but alas, here we are.

We are now approaching the bottom of the weekly range.
And since I made a new indicator (that I shared publicly, I will link below), let's try it out here on the monthly:

So we have the monthly expected move around 219.
This just happens to be right above some ascending support on TSLA (at around 217) which you can see in its entirety here:

And, for curiosity sake, if we overlay my math monthly range indicator with the expected move average indicator set on the monthly averages, here is what we get:

The expected move indicator works really well on TSLA, I am actually impressed, it really lines up with my math ranges and is much less complex so its interesting for sure.
Anyway, I digress, you want to know where this is going right? Okay.

Where is TSLA going:

Let's break it down.

Monthly Outlook:
Overall, the monthly probabilities and analysis on TSLA are pretty damning.

The Bearish calculcated targets for the month have essentially already been surpassed, they were:

1) 239.42
2) 230.37
3) 221.32

The realtime monthly targets are:

1) 235.84
2) 226.90
3) 217.96

Monthly probability favored a move to the downside here which, a moot point as we already hit the projection's targets.

That said, we could potentially circle back up towards the real time monthly high targets, those being:
1) 290.74
2) 304.20
3) 317.66

While the chance of hitting 317.66 is literally 0%, the chance of hitting 290.74 is not absent and is admirably persuasive. Will we circle back for a re-test of this level?
Potentially.

But before we get into that, let us look at the weekly:

Weekly Outlook:

The weekly outlook is neutral . However, it does seem to permit and somewhat favour a bounce to 234. The calculcated targets for the week are:

Bullish
1) 234
2) 241
3) 247

and Bearish
1) 213
2) 207
3) 200

When we look at the most extreme targets (the 3rd bearish and bullish), there is notable favouritism for the 3rd bullish target (247) over the third bearish target (200) for the week, which means, if I were forced to put money on it, I would bet on 247 before I would bet on 200 for next week.

That said, the probability for both are really low and I think we may be confined to a range bound week, likely trading at or between first bearish and bullish target during the week.

Daily Outlook:

For tomorrow, the day looks VERY VERY neutral, its like line in the middle equal chances of either or, which generally means we should see some volatile movement both up and down.

Calculated bull targets:
1) 225.29
2) 228.37
3. 231.45

Bear targets:
1) 220.03
2) 216.78
3) 213.53

Probability assessment says the most likely is bull target 1 and bear target 1.

Analysis, putting it all together:

So what does it all mean? My interpretation of the data is this:

We are approaching a fairly strong support line that I showed you in the chart above. This support line happens to correspond with the bottom of the mathematical range and also the lowest part of the expected move. There is a lot of convergence or confluence as I think traders call it, where the math, technicals and chart kind of line up in perfect symmetry.

That said, I would be looking for a bounce in this area (the 217 area, however the reality is we could drop to 207 on the weekly).
Like I said, there is some bullishness showing through on some other stocks and indices, its hard not to expect a bounce especially after TSLA has been sold down so hard and aggressively.

The best case scenario here is for TSLA to gap down right to this range and hit the open running. This would give me confidence in believing that it is going to respect this area of confluence. If that were the case, I would be inclined to swing personally to 234 but I honestly don't recommend it because it could go either way really and if I do do this, I will be trigger happy with my exit #paperhands.

Long term, still pretty bearish on TSLA. Fundamentally, TSLA is having some problems, but I am not a fundamental trader so I don't really care to talk about them here *cough* Elon *cough*.

And that's it.

Trade safe and let me know your comments, questions and critiques below.

Thanks for reading!

코멘트:

Edit: I said we are now approaching the bottom of the weekly range, I meant monthly, sorry!

거래청산: 타겟 닿음:

Shorted at open as it was at bull target one and the next highest probability was bear target 1 at 220.

It all played out as per the probs.
#trustthemath ;)

Safe trades everyone!